The 2026 election desk
2026 election forecast
Dated national House and Senate model estimates with attribution and uncertainty.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Find your state’s registration route, ballot-return rule and polling hours. Different methods can have different deadlines. OFF-FL · OFF-NC
Forecast: Democrats are favored to win the House. Senate control remains close, with a slight Democratic edge in the two retrieved national models. DDHQ’s central seat scenario is 235 D / 200 R in the House and a 51–49 Democratic Senate caucus advantage. These are estimates, not results. DDHQ-TOP · POL
Coverage: all 435 House races, all 35 Senate contests, all 36 governor races, and selected down-ballot contests. Published probabilities retain their producer and timestamp; no model outputs are silently averaged.
Independent model snapshots
House · Decision Desk HQ
Democratic control: 77% · Republican control: 23%
Seat center: 235 D / 200 R
Published 2026-10-20; checked 2026-10-20T20:10:41Z. Model definitions differ; these probabilities are not averaged.
House · Poliwave
Democratic control: 86% · Republican control: 14%
Seat center: 230 D / 205 R
Published 2026-10-20; checked 2026-10-20T20:10:41Z. Model definitions differ; these probabilities are not averaged.
Senate · Decision Desk HQ
Democratic control: 56% · Republican control: 44%
Seat center: 51 D / 49 R
Published 2026-10-20; checked 2026-10-20T20:10:41Z. Model definitions differ; these probabilities are not averaged.
Senate · Poliwave
Democratic control: 55% · Republican control: 34% · Independent-decided control: 11%
Seat center: 51 D / 49 R
Published 2026-10-20; checked 2026-10-20T20:10:41Z. Model definitions differ; these probabilities are not averaged.
The verified September CPI release provides affordability context: inflation was 3.7% over the year and 0.6% over the month, seasonally adjusted. This is not a mechanical vote predictor. BLS · AP-CPI
Q3 campaign-finance reports cover activity through September 30 and were due October 15. Pre-general reports cover activity through October 14 and are due October 22. Candidate committees, joint fundraising, loans, transfers and outside spending should be reconciled separately; no unreconciled dollar totals are imported. FEC · DOWNBALLOT
Early-vote participation totals do not reveal how ballots were marked. A national total without matching-cutoff corroboration is omitted. Use official state counts with collection times and coverage labels if a turnout panel is added. UF · CB-S-TEXT
Keep the 2026 district plan attached to race data. Do not join old presidential margins or fundraising records solely on a district number after redistricting. This package supplies no district geometries.
Texas Senate · reconciled authorized-committee totals
This focused financial comparison covers both major-party nominees. Amounts are rounded to the nearest dollar; the FEC coverage date controls. These are cycle-to-date totals, not Q3-only receipts, current bank balances, or a forecast of votes. FEC-TALARICO · FEC-PAXTON · GP-TX · PACHAND-FIN
| Candidate | FEC coverage | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash at period end | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico (D) | 2025-09-08 to 2026-09-30 | $128,772,835 | $114,178,604 | $14,594,232 | FEC-TALARICO · GP-TX · PACHAND-FIN · FEC-C00919084 |
| Ken Paxton (R) | 2025-04-01 to 2026-09-30 | $19,497,810 | $14,572,704 | $4,925,105 | FEC-PAXTON · GP-TX · PACHAND-FIN · FEC-C00901918 · FEC-C00930446 |
Receipts can include transfers and other reported inflows. Authorized totals are kept separate from leadership PACs and outside expenditures. One Paxton auxiliary nominee fund reported termination and zero cash; the principal committee filed October Quarterly. The aggregate metadata label is not treated as proof that the principal campaign ended. FEC-C00901918 · FEC-C00930446