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Midterm WatchRaces · forecasts · voting guides

State legislative chambers

32 chambers to watch, with attributed assessments and coalition and supermajority context.

Watch 32 legislative chambers: the 15 competitive/coalition contests in Jacobson’s October 16 assessment, plus selected control and supermajority battles. His Likely category can flag minority-party gains without implying the majority is likely to flip. UVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG

New Hampshire House and Wisconsin Senate lean Democratic in this assessment. Arizona’s chambers, Michigan’s chambers, Minnesota’s chambers, Pennsylvania Senate and Wisconsin Assembly remain toss-ups. Alaska’s governing coalitions require a different control label from a numerical party majority. UVA-LEG · NCSL

Coalition continuation and party control are separate outcomes. These are contributor assessments, not a new Midterm Watch statistical model.
ChamberCurrent governing contextJacobson outlook · Oct 16Evidence
Alaska SenateBipartisan coalitionCoalition continuation favoredUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Alaska HouseBipartisan coalitionCoalition continuation favoredUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Arizona SenateRepublicanToss-upUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Arizona HouseRepublicanToss-upUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Georgia HouseRepublicanLean RUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Maine HouseDemocratic-led; independents matterLean DUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Michigan SenateDemocraticToss-upUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Michigan HouseRepublicanToss-upUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Minnesota SenateDemocraticToss-upUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Minnesota House67–67 power-sharing arrangementToss-upUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
New Hampshire HouseRepublicanLean DUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
New Hampshire SenateRepublicanLean RUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Pennsylvania SenateRepublicanToss-upUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Wisconsin SenateRepublicanLean DUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Wisconsin AssemblyRepublicanToss-upUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Pennsylvania HouseDemocraticLikely DUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Maine SenateDemocraticLikely DUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Florida SenateRepublicanLikely RUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Florida HouseRepublicanLikely RUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Georgia SenateRepublicanLikely RUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Indiana HouseRepublicanLikely RUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Iowa SenateRepublicanLikely RUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Iowa HouseRepublicanLikely RUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Kansas HouseRepublicanLikely RUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Missouri SenateRepublicanLikely RUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Missouri HouseRepublicanLikely RUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
North Carolina SenateRepublicanLikely RUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
North Carolina HouseRepublicanLikely RUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Ohio SenateRepublicanLikely RUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Ohio HouseRepublicanLikely RUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Texas SenateRepublicanLikely RUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG
Texas HouseRepublicanLikely RUVA-LEG · NCSL · BP-LEG