Judicial elections
17 selected judicial entries covering 18 seats, with accurate ballot structures and evidence limits.
These 17 watch entries cover 18 judicial seats. Michigan is one six-candidate, two-seat contest; Washington has five separate contests. Retention votes are identified separately. Party support is different from a candidate’s ballot designation. BP-COURTS · BOLTS · COURT-MI · COURT-WA
North Carolina polling points toward Anita Earls, but the package does not turn an advocacy-sponsored poll or an aggregate into a calibrated win probability. The remaining entries have no winner forecast where the verified evidence is insufficient.
| Contest | Candidates / retention subject | Why it matters | Outlook | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC · Supreme Court seat 1 | Anita Earls (D); Sarah Stevens (R) | Affects the size of the Republican court majority and the path to control in 2028. | Polling edge: Earls. No numerical win probability; current sources indicate a lead but are not two independent neutral surveys. | COURT-NC · BOLTS · NC-JPOLL · NC-CF |
| OH · Supreme Court — term beginning January 2, 2027 | Jennifer Brunner (D); Colleen O’Donnell (R) | The last Democratic-held seat is at stake; court control remains Republican even if Democrats win both contested seats. | No forecast — insufficient verified polling or a second defensible rating | COURT-OH · OH-JBALLOT · BOLTS |
| OH · Supreme Court — term beginning January 1, 2027 | Dan Hawkins (R); Marilyn Zayas (D) | A separate race from the Brunner seat; changes the size of the Republican court majority. | No forecast — insufficient verified polling or a second defensible rating | COURT-OH · OH-JBALLOT · BOLTS |
| MI · Supreme Court — two seats, vote for up to two | Megan Cavanagh; Noah Hood; Casandra Morse-Bills; Michael D. Warren Jr.; Thomas Howe; Jody White | All six candidates run on one nonpartisan ballot; the two highest vote-getters win. These are not paired head-to-head contests. The current Democratic-aligned majority cannot be lost solely through these two seats. | No forecast — insufficient verified polling or a second defensible rating | COURT-MI · MI-JGUIDE · BOLTS |
| MT · Supreme Court | Amy Eddy; Dan Wilson | Nonpartisan election with competing ideological backing; affects the court’s direction. | No forecast — insufficient verified polling or a second defensible rating | COURT-MT · BOLTS |
| WA · Supreme Court position 1 | Colleen Melody; Scott Edwards | Five court seats are on the ballot; positions 1 and 5 fill unexpired terms, and positions 3, 4 and 7 are full-term elections. | No forecast — insufficient verified polling or a second defensible rating | COURT-WA · WA-JGUIDE · BOLTS |
| WA · Supreme Court position 3 | Jaime Michelle Hawk; David Stevens | Five court seats are on the ballot; positions 1 and 5 fill unexpired terms, and positions 3, 4 and 7 are full-term elections. | No forecast — insufficient verified polling or a second defensible rating | COURT-WA · WA-JGUIDE · BOLTS |
| WA · Supreme Court position 4 | Ian Birk; Sean O’Donnell | Five court seats are on the ballot; positions 1 and 5 fill unexpired terms, and positions 3, 4 and 7 are full-term elections. | No forecast — insufficient verified polling or a second defensible rating | COURT-WA · WA-JGUIDE · BOLTS |
| WA · Supreme Court position 5 | Theo Angelis; Dave Larson | Five court seats are on the ballot; positions 1 and 5 fill unexpired terms, and positions 3, 4 and 7 are full-term elections. | No forecast — insufficient verified polling or a second defensible rating | COURT-WA · WA-JGUIDE · BOLTS |
| WA · Supreme Court position 7 | Debra Stephens; Todd Bloom | Five court seats are on the ballot; positions 1 and 5 fill unexpired terms, and positions 3, 4 and 7 are full-term elections. | No forecast — insufficient verified polling or a second defensible rating | COURT-WA · WA-JGUIDE · BOLTS |
| NC · Court of Appeals seat 1 | John S. Arrowood (D); Michael C. Byrne (R) | All three Democratic-held appellate seats are on the ballot. Republicans already hold a majority; these races determine its size. | No forecast — insufficient verified polling or a second defensible rating | NC-JGUIDE · BOLTS |
| NC · Court of Appeals seat 2 | Tobias (Toby) Hampson (D); George Cooper Bell (R) | All three Democratic-held appellate seats are on the ballot. Republicans already hold a majority; these races determine its size. | No forecast — insufficient verified polling or a second defensible rating | NC-JGUIDE · BOLTS |
| NC · Court of Appeals seat 3 | Christine Marie Walczyk (D); Craig Collins (R) | All three Democratic-held appellate seats are on the ballot. Republicans already hold a majority; these races determine its size. | No forecast — insufficient verified polling or a second defensible rating | NC-JGUIDE · BOLTS |
| AZ · Lopez retention | John Lopez IV | Retention vote rather than a head-to-head partisan race. | No forecast — insufficient verified polling or a second defensible rating | BP-COURTS · BOLTS |
| FL · Muñiz retention | Carlos Muñiz | Retention vote rather than a contest against another candidate. | No forecast — insufficient verified polling or a second defensible rating | BP-COURTS · BOLTS |
| MO · Wilson retention | Paul Wilson | Retention election with consequences for the court’s composition. | No forecast — insufficient verified polling or a second defensible rating | BP-COURTS · BOLTS |
| UT · Pohlman retention | Jill Pohlman | Retention contest amid disputes over the court and redistricting. | No forecast — insufficient verified polling or a second defensible rating | BP-COURTS · BOLTS |